某税理士法人 富裕層向け会報 10月号掲載

生き残りを賭けて 欧州のソブリン債危機は未だ混沌としており、米国の景気低迷からの脱出も具体的な展望に欠ける中、政治の空白、円高で苦しむ日本企業の海外進出が加速しだしています。海外進出というよりもむしろ、目に見えない形で機能の分散があらゆる分野でかなり大規模に進んでいると考えた方が良いように思います。最近、新聞発表されたP社の海外調達部門のシンガポール集約は、業界の典型的な動きの氷山の一角であり、日本の大手商社などはシンガポールにおいてかなり大規模なオペレーションを既に開始しています。日本の企業は我々が考える以上に優秀であり、また対応力が備わっているようです。機能の分散、すなわちグローバル化は、ローカル化という形で日本から一時的に付加価値を奪い去ることになるかもしれません。しかし、その事によって企業の価値を高め、企業の存続を支え続けることは、最終的には自国へ貢献できる機会を確保していると言っても過言ではないでしょう。このような形で企業が生き残りを賭け海外に機能を分散させている中で、力のある個人が日本にとどまる事は意味がないように思えます。個人マネーも追随すべきであり、躊躇する理由が見当たりません。同様にリスクを分散すべきです。米国では逆境に強い人、まさしく生き残った人を尊敬の念を込めて ”He is survivor” と呼ぶことがあります。 私達個人も同様、“We have to survive” であり、信念を持って海外に資産を隔離していた人々に対して ”He is survivor” と称賛を持って呼ばれる日が、いつか必ず訪れると思っています。

西洋から東洋へ 軍事力による富の収奪・移転により西洋国家が東洋の国々(実際には南米、アフリカも含まれますが)を支配するという近代史の枠組みが出来上がりました。それらは、食料や原材料、奴隷としての人の調達等を通して、資源の豊かでない国が資源の豊かな国を支配し、富の移転を図るという構図です。第二次世界大戦後、今まで支配されていた多くの国がナショナリズムの勃興とともに次々と独立するようになり、主に軍事力で支配関係を保っていた西洋の国々は、今度は、貿易・条約を通じてそれぞれの市場を目指すようになりました。ところが、人口の増大と市場の巨大化が、支配されていた東洋の国々に急速に力をつけ、東洋(持てる国)から西洋(持たざる国)への富の流出がとまり、これまでの構図が変わろうとしています。

東洋の中の日本 このような状況の中、どちらかと言えば欧米寄りであった日本の位置付けは相対的に低下しています。毎年スイスのビジネススクールが発表する世界競争力順位では、日本はかなり下位に位置しており(調査開始当時の89年は1位、現在は27位)、最近ではシンガポールが毎年1位を獲得しています。(香港が2位)シンガポールの一人当たり購買力平価(何千もの商品やサービスの国家間の価格差を調整し、実質的な購買力を反映させたもの)はUS$5万ドルを超えており、US$3万ドル強の日本を既に超えています。5年度の2016年度にはこの差が更に拡がると予測されています。(シンガポールはUS$7万ドル、香港US$6万ドル、日本はUS$4万ドルと予測)私達日本人は、今でも日本はアジア最強の国との認識が強いと思いますが(確かにGDPとしては世界第3位)、アジア全体としては、日本の思いとは関係のないところでパワーバランスが変わりだしたというのが実際のようです。

シンガポール シンガポールと言われても具体的にそのロケーション、周辺国、政治・経済的な位置付けをご存じの方は少ないのではと思います。今年になり、日本の携帯電話のコマーシャルでマリナベイサンズホテルが撮影に使われ、初めて話題にされた方もいるのではないでしょうか。シンガポールは人口で510万人程のいわゆる都市国家です。面積も東京23区程の大きさです。赤道直下近くに位置し、年間平均気温は約27度、熱帯雨林気候特有のスコールと1年の間に雨季と乾季が存在します。公用語は英語、中国語(マンダリン)、マレー語、タミル語ですが、基本的には大学教育を含めて英語が中心です。イギリス連邦加盟国であり、英米法(コモン・ロー)が整備されています。北はマレーシアからタイ・ベトナムと続き中国へ、南はインドネシアからオーストラリアへ、西へはインドから中東・ヨーロッパとつながる交通の要衝です。(もともと海運が盛んであり、コンテナ取扱量は昨年まで世界一でした)また、アジアではいわゆる華僑ネットワークは無視できない存在です。東南アジア諸国では経済は華僑が押さえていると言われており、シンガポール国民の77%は中華系、華僑と呼ばれる人々です。中国とは“良好な”関係を保っており、中国よりはむしろ台湾との関係がより強いと言われています。公用語にも表れていますが、近隣諸国との関係は非常に良好で、政治的な中立を保っています。兵役制度が今も残り、軍事(軍備)的にはイスラエルを模倣していると言われており、小国ながらも無視できない軍事力を誇っています。

金融センターとしてのシンガポール 最近、世界最大手の会計事務所の一つ、プライス・ウォータハウス・クーパーズが2013年にはシンガポールが富裕層の資産預かり残高でスイスを抜いて世界一になるであろうと新聞紙上で発表をいたしました。先に述べたように、シンガポールはアジアの小国に過ぎません。なぜ、このようなことが起こり得るのでしょうか?まずは政治的な中立性・安定性が思い浮かびます。シンガポールは基本的には華僑の国であっても、大国の中国に偏ることなく、英語を基本の公用語としていることもあって、あらゆる国とのコミュニケーション能力に長けています。しかも世界中に散らばる華僑ネットワークは私達の想像以上のものであり、国境をまたがって貴重な情報、重要な情報が共有されていると言われています。税制面を見てみますと、直接税である法人税は一律17%、個人所得税は最大20%の累進課税方式です。間接税の消費税は7%、遺産税(相続税)・贈与税も2008年に廃止がされ、世界的に見ても軽課税国ですが、政府系の投資会社の利益を含めると巨額の財政黒字国です。シンガポールの金融機関の健全性は折り紙付きで、シンガポール3大銀行の一つOCBC(華僑銀行)は世界で最も健全な銀行のベスト1に選ばれています。(ブルームバーグ発表)。また、シンガポールの犯罪発生率は日本の半分以下という調査報告もあり、医療機関の技術レベル、教育機関の研究レベルもアジアでは日本・香港と1・2を争うレベル、テロも震災も原子力発電施設もありません。企業法務の上では国際企業間の紛争の仲裁地としても機能しています。のこれらの中立性・安定性・安全性・専門性・信頼性がシンガポールに世界中から人と物と資金を集める原動力であることに疑いの余地はないようです。(ご参考までに、S$1000万ドル、邦貨換算6億円の預託金を必要とされるシンガポール永住権の申請が“毎月”100件、そして、純金融資産でUS$100万ドル以上を持った世帯は、6世帯に1世帯になったことが新聞発表されています。)

最後に かつて、アジア最高を誇った日本の金融機関は“物言わぬ”債権者として大量の国債を抱え瀕死の重傷です。冒頭にお話しましたように、世界はアジアを中心に動き出そうとしています。日本の政治がどうであろうが、財政的に破綻の危険性があろうが、私達は生き残らなければなりません、もう一度、アジアの盟主、そして世界の盟主を目指すべく。その鍵は間違いなくシンガポールにあります。

 

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